Maryland Mortgage Rates Weekly Market Update for the week of April 29, 2013 from John R. Thomas with Primary Residential Mortgage in Towson, Maryland. John is the author of the book, Your Guide to Purchasing Your First Home in Maryland. Call 410-412-3319 to get a free mortgage planning consultation or APPLY ONLINE for Maryland mortgage loan.
Maryland mortgage rates moved sharply higher to end the week last week after the Labor Department released the April 2013 Jobs Report. If you look at the mortgage bond chart below you can see that mortgage bonds were at all time record highs for most of the week as can be seen from the green candles but on Friday the trend quickly switch and mortgage bonds sold off as can be seen from the big red candle on Friday. Mortgage bonds sold off on Friday and have switched the trend from moving higher to again moving lower as can be seen from the downward arrow. Mortgage bonds were able to hold at the 200 day moving averge so we are recommending FLOATING your Maryland mortgage rate to start the week. But if mortgage bonds sell off again and break below the 200 day moving average we will quickly switch to a locking stance.
The April 2013 Jobs Report came out better than expected which moved money out of the bond market into the stock market and the DOW set another all time record high by closing above 16,000. The report showed 165,000 jobs created in April 2013 which was better than the expected 155,000. The number of jobs created for February 2013 and March 2013 were also revised higher by 114,000 jobs. We also saw the unemployment rate drop from 7.6% to 7.5% which is the lowest it has been since December 2008 and down from the high of 10% set back in October 2009. We also saw weekly initial jobless claims come out on Thursday with a drop of 18,000 claims bringing the weekly claims to 324,000.
The news wasn’t as good as it first seems when you dig into the numbers. The drop in unemployment can be explained more by people not being counted in the calculation versus people actually going back to work. If you look at the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR), which is the number of people 16 years and older that are eligible to work that are actually working. The LFPR is at 63.3 which is the lowest it has been since the 1970s. This is showing we don’t have the number of people working that we need to in order to turn the economy around. If you look at the jobs that were added in April 2013 jobs report you will see most the jobs added were from bars and restaurants, retail, and profession and business services. These are not jobs that are long term careers or good paying in most circumstances.
The Federal Reserve held their FOMC meeting on Tuesday and stated the QE4 bond buying program will continue throughout 2013 and into 2014. They will purchase 85 Billion a month and will spend $40 Million of it buying mortgage bonds and $45 Million in U.S. Treasuries. This means that the Federal Reserve will be helping keep mortgage rates low throughout 2013 and into 2014. The Federal Reserve would be concerned with continuing the program if inflation were to kick up but inflation continues to remain tame.
In Housing News, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index was released for February 2013 and it showed a 9.3% increase in the average home price across its 20 City Index. This was the largest year over year gain since May 2006. This report shows that real estate is recovering across the country and supports the prediction that home prices will continue to rise throughout 2013.
The Next Free Maryland First Time Home Buyer Seminar is Saturday May 11, 2013 in Towson, Maryland. Register by calling 410-412-3319 or Register online at http://www.MarylandHomeBuyerSeminars.com
John R. Thomas
Senior Loan Officer – NMLS 38783
Primary Residential Mortgage, Inc. – Baltimore Maryland Mortgage Company
1220A East Joppa Rd Suite 118
Towson, MD 21286
410-412-3319 MD Office